Disgust With Both Parties Could Lead to A Democratic Rout in 2010

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My reasoning is simple.

The pattern may turn out to be Conservative candidates running against the GOP and primary candidates challenging Democrats.

If the fights in both parties tend this way, the Democrats win hands down. Almost no third party candidate wins. The sad exception last time was Lieberman who got defeated in the Democratic primary.

I believe the electoral dissent will boil over on the Republican side and result in third party runs by defeated GOP primary candidates. If Democrats avoid this pattern they have a lock both Senate and House.

The disgust with both parties comes from two different perceptions. Progressives are tired of bought and paid for Democrats. And the wingnut shrunken Republicans simply want to destroy the party they are ruining every time they open their mouths.

The best thing is that there is a majority that leans toward the Obama agenda. If that changes we are in deep trouble. We would be where we were when the minor dark age we live in was sealed in 1968.

I believe that fate will pass us by. Dems need to hang tough and keep battles within the party.

Republicans will be unable to. That means their fate is worse than it even is today.

COMMENT ON: Steele Doesn’t Argue With Radio Host Who Trashes Boehner And Blunt

If Michael Steele really agrees that the Republican leaders are boneheads and worse, he could become a hero by calling this out. But I doubt it will happen. In today’s climate no one would listen.

Enlightened Republican leadership would govern with and not against the President, who is himself a centrist.

The irony is that the ascent of wingnut Republican leadership means Obama will probably go down as the great liberal victor over a retrograde and shrinking GOP.

Either way his agenda will be enacted.

Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

Blue Dogs Delay, Water Down House Health Care Bill

It’s not over ’til its over.

Let’s see. The President has insisted on a public option. Who will win on that one?

He will. In one of two ways.

A bill with the public option in it passes. WIN

A bill with a public option fails because of Blue Dog votes and wingnut Republican opposition. WIN

The electorate will be intelligent enough to read the correct writing on the wall. Every Blue Dog who votes against the public option will face stiff opposition in 2010.

This is the President’s signature issue;. Over 70 percent of Americans agree.

Everything going on now is chess. The vote will be Checkmate Obama. Either way.

http://stephencrose.wordpress.com

Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

President Obama’s Support Problem

Alright, it is time to address this.

1. The President has a support problem, but it may not be what you think it is.

2. If you think it is his friends, you are at least in the ballpark. If you think it is his friends in the media you are on to one, but not the only, answer. The President has a support problem with the likes of Ed Schultz who, on a scale of one to ten, is about a two when it comes to coherence. As the most vocal of the President’s TV supporters, he is little or no help at all. Even the choir to which he preaches is not generally amused.

The other MSNBC folk seem to lack anyone who actually understands the president. Or, to put it differently, who understands how this president changes the news cycle.

3. So what really is the president’s support problem? One might be tempted to go to the polls which currently show him slipping on specific issues. These slips reflect, in part, the MSM’s continual failure to actually report in depth on the Obama program. A careful daily examination of the White House site, even if you are critical of the President, will tell you more than you will find on TV and generally more than you will find in newspapers and magazines. Not to mention online.

So yes the media are a problem. But Obama already knew this. And his strategies are related precisely to the shabby, lazy and superficial performance he encounters daily.

4. And the result is that he does not have a support problem. The people support both him and his programs. What they do not support is the opposition’s characterization of them. The lies of folk like Limbaugh, Steele, Gingrich, Cheney, Sessions and many others represent exactly the sort of smokescreen that was leveled at FDR. No one supports fiscal irresponsibility. No one supports government bureaucratic interference. No one supports the suppression of free enterprise. And that includes Barack Obama.

FDR became beloved because when the dust settled he was perceived to have brought the US through a very difficult time.

Six months into his first term, Barack Obama is absorbing everything the GOP can throw at him and he has yet to be defeated. When he has had to compromise, as on card check, he has done so. He will do the same on issues related to Guantanamo. I devoutly hope he will find a way to contain and eventually move beyond our commitments in AfPak.

I have little doubt that, whatever the President does, his popularity on issues will hover at the 50 percent mark as his overall popularity hovers well above 50 percent. I have every hope, however, that as health care is accomplished, as the other parts of his agenda are enacted, as the green future becomes believable on main street, a glint of appreciation will emerge among the whip-sawed independents and the decent Republicans. Added to a highly supportive Democratic base, this movement will be adequate to generate serious victories in 2010.

One more thing.

The president’s support problem is made moot by a simple fact that everyone can agree with. The performance of the president’s opposition remains inept, fraught with lies and has a seeming tolerance for more and more hate politics.

A recent GOP town meeting in Rhode Island degenerated into a fiasco, A recent Young Republican election almost made Michael Steele seem normal. If the going gets rough we can most probably depend on the GOP, like John McCain, to be the gift that keeps on giving.

To summarize, as the President shifts into high gear to accomplish health care in his first term, he has no support problem. He has a continuing problem with his friends and with the media generally.but it is really their problem, not his. It is they that end up the losers. He has the popular support he needs to push through changes that are herculean in scope. As the changes take place, his support will become obvious. And even polls will take notice. And if all else fails the thought of a return to ineptitude in the White House will diminish any fear the the President is on weak ground,

Obama Agenda Is The Popular Will — Blue Dogs and GOP Take Note


Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

My comment.

Washington Post: “Democrats have a large enough majority to pass bills without any GOP support, but they are grappling with internal divisions …Obama would like at least some Republican backing on key measures …”

There are several issues here.

First, In terms of health care and other major Obama agenda items, the country favors the Obama proposals. On health care this would include the public option.

Second, if this is the case, Blue Dog Democrats will need to think very carefully about going against the President. They could well be outflanked by Obama-favoring candidates in the future.

Third, the same goes for Repubicans who oppose the President. They face outright defeat at the hands of Democrats whose election will increase the current majority.

The difference between now and the past, when off-year elections went to the party out of power, is that the GOP is bereft of anything but ridicule and negation. They can argue the fiscal POV. But this is dicey because we may need for even further government commitment to move toward a new economy.

All told, the President is being pushed toward more progressive positions. Happily, these are positions he has always held. Both Blue Dogs and Republicans should see that they are potentially the losers if they oppose the Obama Agenda.

PS: WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO EVERONE WILL HAVE TO SUFFER?

The President made it plain that Health Care Reform would “tax” everyone some. He did not use the forbidden word; He meant everyone would have to suffer some, to achieve the universality we need and the fiscal stability that is necessary. Now we see people saying not me. Sorry. He meant everyone. I have little doubt that this need for mutual sacrifice will be a major note of the President’s efforts to resolve this when he is back from his travels.

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