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Chris Cillizza Assumes Much Too Much

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In Obama Pushes Superdelegates to Declare Support, Chris Cillizza accurately notes what I have called Superdelegate Anarchy — Obama’s month-old strategy to equal his opponent’s superdelegates. But Chris concludes that, even with the success of this strategy, there is a way to keep things alive until the Convention.

Specifically his FIX blog post states:

Clinton will win enough states — Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico and, potentially, Indiana — to keep her in the game.

Here are my pre-Super Tuesday predictions for these states, based on polling at that time and on the transfer of 10 point to Obama in each of the states, to reflect the actual margin of victory in South Carolina. Sounds complex, but it has worked reasonably well so far. These are for delegate splits but also reflect who would win the state.

Tuesday, April 22

Pennsylvania 188 Obama 107 Clinton 81

Tuesday, May 6

Indiana 84 Obama 50 Clinton 34

Tuesday, May 13

West Virginia 39 Obama 20 Clinton 19

Tuesday, May 20

Kentucky 60 Obama 33 Clinton 27

Saturday, June 7

Puerto Rico 63 Obama 27 Clinton 36

I have Obama winning all these contests save Puerto Rico. To establish some creds, I had Clinton winning Texas, a fact that now appears to be debateable since Barack now has the most delegates. The only major defeats I have had were California and Ohio — but neither of these had the momentum going in that these latter contests will have. And the latest PPP poll in North Carolina speaks well of Obama’s growing power with every demographic.

All this is simply to underline that there is a good reason for Obama’s “magnanimity” toward his opponent. He knows she won’t leave and he also knows his chances are considerably better than even of ending up ahead of where he is now, relatively speaking, in elected delegates.

To put is succinctly, she will not be in the game after the primaries are over. The only question is whether she will have to bow out sooner. I would imagine, if my PA prediction is correct, that the answer is Yes.

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Ed Rendell Condones FOX Libel — Incredible

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Please do the following: 1. Watch the video below. 2. You heard right. It’s Ed Rendell praising FOX as fair and balanced. 3. Now why would I say the good governor condones libel? Because I believe this is what FOX did to Rev. Wright. And Rendell’s approval of FOX is an implicit approval of the “fairness” of FOX’s attack on Wright and its obsessive — and happily nonsensical — efforts to blow Obama out of the water.

Now I would guess Ed Rendell or one of his friends or staff will find this page and read it. So here is Step 4:

Check my About section to understand that I am not certifiable. I even once suggested that Barack’s opponent run for President — in 2004.

Just one more thing:

Step 5. Relax. Stretch out. And enjoy the following
Jeremiah Wright Videos.

Video: Context of FOX “God Damn” Soundbite

The “Chickens Roost” Sermon Uncut

FOX Virus Video

More Typical Wright Sermon Excerpts:

Video: Pastor Wright on Who Writes History

Good Friday Sermon Excerpt — Memorable

These show Wright to be angry, but not a pastor who could be said to have spewed out 20 years of hate as your candidate implied when she said she would have left his church.

That is enough steps.

Funny, Governor, on the matter of steps. I am recommending to Barack Obama the precise steps you took to win Pennsylvania when you ran. Upscale PA and some key other spots like the Lehigh Valley.

It would be ironical if you provided the map for defeating the candidate to whom you have tied your reputation. And possibly your own political fortunes.

Pictures ARE worth 1000 words. “I didn’t know”. I believe it. That’s the problem.

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PPP Gives Obama A Big NC Green Light

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Public Policy Polling is the best of them all for my money. Even when they go against what I hope for, they have proved right. Link directly to PPP for full details. They’ve released good news for Barack Obama in North Carolina. Including encouraging results from those who have never voted in primaries before.

Results of the latest poll are recounted in the release below.

Democratic Tracking Poll: President

Barack Obama 54
Hillary Clinton 36

Obama has retained a large lead in the state after a week in which both candidates made several appearances.

His greatest strength is coming from voters who have a history of voting in general elections but not in primaries. With that group he has a 60-32 advantage. Bringing more folks into the political process has been one of the central successes of the Obama campaign, and it appears he’s doing that in North Carolina.

Among voters who have a history of voting in primaries the race is much closer, with Obama sporting a 49-40 lead.

Obama now leads in every part of the state except the Mountains, which has very few black voters. He has an advantage across every age group, and is up by double digits with both men and women. He is also doing respectable with the white vote, where he has 36%, and has his customary large lead with black voters (81-11).

Click here for all PPP data.

Obama at Penn. State Rally

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Barack’s Opponent : Economic Woes Loom

BREAKING NEWS: March 31, 2008 — SARAJEVO, Bosnia – The Bosnian girl who famously read a poem to Hillary Rodham Clinton during her 1996 visit to the war-torn country is shocked – and her countrymen infuriated – that the former first lady claimed to have dodged sniper fire that day.

Emina Bicakcic, now 20 and studying to become a doctor, told The Post she stood on the tarmac at the air base in Tuzla, greeted Clinton and even had time to share the lines of verse she’d written – all without fear of attack from an unseen enemy. SOURCE

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Barack Obama’s opponent is showing signs of continued economic vulnerability (there has been a pattern of such problems) according to a piece from AP by Kenneth P. Vogel. Salient sections are posted below.

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s cash-strapped presidential campaign has been putting off paying hundreds of bills for months — freeing up cash for critical media buys but also earning the campaign a reputation as something of a deadbeat in some small-business circles.

A pair of Ohio companies owed more than $25,000 by Clinton for staging events for her campaign are warning others in the tight-knit event production community — and anyone else who will listen — to get their cash upfront when doing business with her. Her campaign, say representatives of the two companies, has stopped returning phone calls and e-mails seeking payment of outstanding invoices. One even got no response from a certified letter.

Then:

It’s not just the size of Clinton’ss debts that’s noteworthy. It’s also that her unpaid bills extend beyond the realm of high-priced consultants who typically let bills slide as part of the cost of doing business with powerful clientele whose success is linked to their own.

Some of Clinton’s biggest debts are to pollster and chief strategist Mark Penn, who’s owed $2.5 million; direct mail company MSHC Partners, which is owed $807,000, phone-banking firm Spoken Hub, which is waiting for $771,000, and ad maker Mandy Grunwald, who’ss owed $467,000.

Clinton also reported debts more than one month old to a slew of apolitical businesses and organizations, large and small, in the states through which this historically expensive Democratic primary campaign has raged.


We Shall Overcome

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More Obama Superdelegates on Deck

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The Superdelegate Anarchy strategy looks to be continuing with at least three superdelegates on deck and a possible seven-superdelegate windfall from North Carolina. The Wall Street Journal has the story.

Obama’s gracious she-can-stay-as-long-as-she-wants and his opponent’s ominous threats to create Convention conflict are part of the mix. The result is a heady broth that looks to be a momentum builder. I also have unconfirmed rumors of odd fundraising and money issues on the opponent’s side. These I’ll follow up. The WSJ piece is quoted in part below:

Slowly but steadily, a string of Democratic Party figures is taking Barack Obama’s side in the presidential nominating race and raising the pressure on Hillary Clinton to give up.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is expected to endorse Sen. Obama Monday, according to a Democrat familiar with her plans. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s seven Democratic House members are poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group — just one has so far — before that state’s May 6 primary, several Democrats say.

Helping to drive the endorsements is a fear that the Obama-Clinton contest has grown toxic and threatens the Democratic Party’s chances against Republican John McCain in the fall.

Sen. Clinton rejects that view. Over the weekend, she reiterated her intent to stay in the race beyond the last contest in early June — and all the way to the party’s convention in Denver, if necessary.

“There are some folks saying we ought to stop these elections,” she said Saturday in Indiana, which also has a May 6 primary. “I didn’t think we believed that in America. I thought we of all people knew how important it was to give everyone a chance to have their voices heard and their votes counted.”

Sen. Obama told reporters, “My attitude is that Sen. Clinton can run as long as she wants.” …

The expected move by Minnesota’s Sen. Klobuchar follows Friday’s endorsement of Sen. Obama by Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22.

Both senators had planned to remain neutral, according to party officials, but decided to weigh in as the Democrats’ campaign became more negative and Sen. McCain was free to exploit the confusion looking to the November election.

One North Carolinian confirmed that at least several of the state’s House members would go public in favor of Sen. Obama before long. Meanwhile, elected officials in other states with upcoming contests, including Indiana, Montana and Oregon, are weighing whether to endorse Sen. Obama.

What makes such endorsements significant is that they’re from superdelegates. These delegates — members of Congress, governors and other party officials — can vote for whomever they want at the Democratic convention in August. Sen. Obama has a slight lead over Sen. Clinton in the pledged-delegate count — the delegates won during primaries and caucuses — but neither can amass enough pledged delegates for a majority. That makes the vote of the superdelegates decisive.
SOURCE

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Mario Cuomo’s Candidates-as-Running-Mates Idea

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The only people who may like Mario Cuomo’s candidates-as-running-mates idea are supporters of Barack Obama’s opponent who are a) wanting to be nice or b) who see this as a dream ticket.

I see nothing wrong with being nice, even when provoked, but there is a very good reason for Obama to maintain an open veep slot for whatever purposes he deems wise.

The basic reason is that this is not a contest between two candidates. It is a contest for control of the Democratic Party. If my prescient capacities have been borne out by various landmarks in this campaign, allow me one other simple prediction.

When Barack wins, his organization will expand by five times. Insofar as the Democratic party continues it will he his party. Open it will be, but the control will not be divided and it is time for all the journeymen and women who emerged during the Carter years and hung on during the Clinton years to either hang it up or get with the program.

Let me guess about the shape of things to come.

I note that for all its flaws, the opponent’s campaign has prospered only to the extent she has emulated the Obama campaign. I think Barack has been her Deval Patrick, though she would never admit it and, given her Bosnia moments, perhaps would not even know it had happened. I am referring to her waking up to the age of small online donations and her embrace of the change message.

No matter how bloodied the race becomes, Barack will win it and when he does he will implement the next phase of his growth into a leader of epochal importance. It will involve creation of a 65 percent majority.

(This is the best argument for a gentle transition to 2025 for Obama over the coming months — a combination of superdelegate anarchy and further electoral victories.)

When victory comes — the shape of all Democratic campaigns will be deeply influenced by the precise methodologies workout this season. From bottom-up to cyber-powered.

Barack Obama will maintain and refine his contributor base — we after all, are his donors and he will answer to us just as George Bush answers to the fat cats. We will be the first cyber-political machine. And we will have international support. We will not be calling for invasions, more oil and devil take the hindmost. We will be implementing Barack’s agenda for change.

The Democratic Party will coalesce with the effective shape of the Obama campaign through the election and then into his first administration.

More than this I cannot see.

I wish Mario Cuomo well. Better luck on the next idea.

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Trinity Church — Chicago — Attend

BULLETIN FROM GALLUP: PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama has extended his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally to 52% to 42%, the third consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which he has held a statistically significant lead, and Obama’s largest lead of the year so far. AS PREDICTED

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I am listening to s service at Trinity Church in Chicago. Actually watching it too. Trinity has an advanced web site. And I just wanted to call attention to it. I noticed the name of Vincent Harding among the writers featured in the church’s books section. I remember Vincent and I sitting together at a table at a banquet for Christianity and Crisis Magazine (RIP). The time came to do something patriotic. I forget what. But everyone stood. Except for Vincent and me.

I do not think in the deep freeze of the last forty years that people even believe that there should be a true separation of church and state.

I believe in it because the one I call Abba, while within every person as spirit, and therefore not to be blasphemed, is one who dwells in heaven and heaven is that part of reality within and beyond that is no respecter of human idolatries.

No respecter of patriotism.

No respecter of corporate loyalty.

No respecter of celebrity.

No respecter of religions.

If I gravitate to Black theology, it is simply because it is a little closer to what the prophets had in mind when they said, “I hate. I despise your feast days. I take no delight in your solemn assemblies … You can take away the noise of your songs. But let JUSTICE …” And so forth.

You find none of this in most churches. So if you find frustration embedded in the sermons of the Reverend Wright, you are hearing his progression from pain to affirmation. The structure of his deliverances. Searing. Authentic. Bothersome. Crucifixion-worthy if you are a Roman Soldier of FOX News.

It should be normal that a white minister preaches thus. But we are as culturally bound as anyone else. The other day I spoke in MY Trinity Church which is in Manhattan and is a diverse set of lost and ignored souls, marginalized and in decline. I let loose Wright-style. It felt good.

I was talking about the Lord’s Prayer which is the only prayer Jesus taught. If people do not know and understand that prayer, we are lost. If they do, they are saved.

Ah, well. Enough.

I wish Vincent was around. He is actually. In Colorado.

I do hope Barack wins. I will be able to make eye to eye contact with more people and therefore I will see more of Abba.

PS: I do know my theology differs. I do not see God as outside and as omnipotent or as some force unconnected to us. I think Jesus came to abolish and redefine this. This means I believe that we are more responsible than we know. That everything is true but everything is false too. It is up to us to hammer truth from the depth of our own realities. And not to profess what we cannot know.

I you want to know what I think, inspect the little links below that lead to recent books like Beyond Creed and Abba’s Way. I think Abba’s Way is a prediction of Barack. It was published in 2006.

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