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In Obama Pushes Superdelegates to Declare Support, Chris Cillizza accurately notes what I have called Superdelegate Anarchy — Obama’s month-old strategy to equal his opponent’s superdelegates. But Chris concludes that, even with the success of this strategy, there is a way to keep things alive until the Convention.
Specifically his FIX blog post states:
Clinton will win enough states — Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico and, potentially, Indiana — to keep her in the game.
Here are my pre-Super Tuesday predictions for these states, based on polling at that time and on the transfer of 10 point to Obama in each of the states, to reflect the actual margin of victory in South Carolina. Sounds complex, but it has worked reasonably well so far. These are for delegate splits but also reflect who would win the state.
Tuesday, April 22
Pennsylvania 188 Obama 107 Clinton 81
Tuesday, May 6
Indiana 84 Obama 50 Clinton 34
Tuesday, May 13
West Virginia 39 Obama 20 Clinton 19
Tuesday, May 20
Kentucky 60 Obama 33 Clinton 27
Saturday, June 7
Puerto Rico 63 Obama 27 Clinton 36
I have Obama winning all these contests save Puerto Rico. To establish some creds, I had Clinton winning Texas, a fact that now appears to be debateable since Barack now has the most delegates. The only major defeats I have had were California and Ohio — but neither of these had the momentum going in that these latter contests will have. And the latest PPP poll in North Carolina speaks well of Obama’s growing power with every demographic.
All this is simply to underline that there is a good reason for Obama’s “magnanimity” toward his opponent. He knows she won’t leave and he also knows his chances are considerably better than even of ending up ahead of where he is now, relatively speaking, in elected delegates.
To put is succinctly, she will not be in the game after the primaries are over. The only question is whether she will have to bow out sooner. I would imagine, if my PA prediction is correct, that the answer is Yes.