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As Predicted, Obama LEADS in PA

BULLETIN: Gore-Obama link forged. Why go for an endorsement when you have already talked regularly and can most likely look to see Nobel winner Al Gore in the heart of an Obama Administration? That is the surmise from remarks by Barack today that said he could see Al Gore in his Cabinet and that they talk frequently.

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Public Policy Polling, the most reliable predictor so far of Obama wins and losses, now says Barack Obama is AHEAD in PA. This is remarkable and most likely accurate.

The full details are below:

Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Obama takes the lead in PennsylvaniaClick here for all PPP data.

Barack Obama 45
Hillary Clinton 43

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama’s steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.

Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton’s 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
“>
CLICK HERE FOR EXTENSIVE FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS POLL

Full results here.
Posted by Tom Jensen at 8:41 AM


BONUS COVERAGE: BILL CLINTON LOSES IT IN CALIFORNIA

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Latest Poll: Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama All Even in Texas

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The latest Public Policy Polling Texas Democratic Poll suggests that Barack Obama needs to work like mad to nail down the Lone Star State. Why? Because the poll finds Obama and Clinton deadlocked, tied, all even. This is deceptive because PPP has consistently shown a likely Democratic win for Obama by predicting nearly ten points beyond the rest of the polls in Obama’s favor. But these are honest pollers and the results below show that PPP is in AGREEMENT with the rest of the Texas polls. I would be willing to gamble on this basis that Obama will do better in Ohio than in Texas. Unless…

Unless the Obama Campaign reads these figures as a call to redouble efforts in Texas. If I am right, Barack can win in Ohio but a Texas win is uncertain. I believe I am right because PPP has never called Obama even with Clinton — in Wisconson and South Carolina they CONTRADICTED the other polls and showed Obama well ahead — accurately.

So, read the results in full below. And redouble efforts in Texas. A win in texas should lead to a SWEEP next Tuesday for Obama. A loss will not sink the Obama campaign, but it would not lead to a the knockout blow that a sweep would.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: DEAN DEBNAM

February 25, 2008 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888

Obama, Clinton tied in Texas

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are dead even in the Texas democratic primary, according to the newest survey by Public Policy Polling.

Each is at 48%. Obama has taken the lead among white voters 51-44 and as usual leads by a wide margin with black voters, 73-27. Clinton is hanging on due to strong support from Hispanic voters, with whom she holds a 68-27 advantage.

“With major disparities between Obama and Clinton’s support along racial lines in Texas, this contest is likely to be decided by what groups turn out the most,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“Clinton is not going to win without significant Hispanic turnout, and Obama is going to have a hard time if African Americans don’t turn out in large numbers.”

Clinton leads among Democrats 52-44, but Obama is doing very well with Republicans
(76-20) and independents (51-40) who plan to vote in the Democratic primary

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 52-36 with Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 9%, which would be one of his stronger performances.

“If he can’t win southern states like Texas, this is the end of the line for Mike Huckabee,” said Debnam. “It’s really hard to see where there’s room for him to turn this around.”

In the Texas Democratic primary for Senate, state representative Rick Noriega has the
lead with 32%, but 42% of likely primary voters remain undecided. Perennial candidate
Gene Kelly is second with 15%.

PPP surveyed 434 likely Democratic primary voters and 423 likely Republican primary
voters on February 23rd and 24th. The survey’s margins of errors are +/- 4.7% and +/-
4.8% respectively. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

PPP will release a final Texas poll the day before next week’s primary.
Complete results are attached and can be found at http://www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you have questions about this release or would like an interview regarding this release,please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

###

Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

February 23-24, 2008

Survey of 433 likely Texas Democratic primary voters

Texas Democratic Primary Survey Results

Q1 The Democratic candidates still running for
President are Hillary Clinton and Barack
Obama. If the primary was today, who would
you vote for? If you would vote for Hillary
Clinton, press 1. If for Barack Obama, press 2.
If you’re undecided press 3.

Clinton……………….. .48%
Obama………………. .48%
Undecided………….. . 4%

Q2 The Democratic candidates for US Senate are
Gene Kelly, Ray McMurrey, Rick Noriega, and
Rhett Smith. If the election was today, who
would you vote for? If Gene Kelly, press 1. if
Ray McMurrey, press 2. If Rick Noriega, press
3. If Rhett Smith, press 4. If you’re undecided,
press 5.

Kelly………………………………………………………. 15%
McMurrey……………………………………………….. 8%
Noriega ………………………………………………….. 32%
Smith …………………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 42%

Q3 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is
most important to you? The War in Iraq,
education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral
or family values, health care, or immigration. If
the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If
education, press 2. If the economy and jobs,
press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family
values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If
immigration, press 7. If some other issue is
most important, press 8.

War in Iraq ………… 25%
Education ………….. 9%
Economy and jobs. 38%
Taxes ……………….. 2%
Moral and family values………………..5%
Health care………… 12%
Immigration ……….. 7%
Other ………………… 2%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.

Women ……………… .54%
Men…………………… .46%

Q5 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If other, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 79%
Republican……………………………………………… 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%

Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. if you are white,
press 2. If you are African American, press 3.
If other, press 4.

Hispanic …………….. .29%
White ………………… .45%
African American … .22%
Other…………………. . 4%

Q7 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older than 65, press 4.

18-29…………………. .12%
30-45…………………. .29%
46-65…………………. .44%
Older than 65 ……… .15

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New Poll Anticipates Barak Obama Surge Will Win Ohio

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Public Policy Polling (PPP), the only accurate poll for South Carolina and Wisconson, has released a poll for Ohio that that predicts an Obama victory as he closes a four point gap between now and next Tuesday. It is now possible to predict a four state sweep for Obama next Tuesday.

The PPP release quoted in full below:

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has pulled within 4 points of Hillary Clinton in Ohio,
according to the newest survey by Public Policy Polling.

Clinton leads Obama 50-46. Obama’s surge appears to be at least partially attributable tothe virtual certainly that John McCain will be nominated on the Republican side. That means more independents and Republicans in the state are planning to vote in the Democratic primary. While Obama trails Clinton 56-40 among self identified Democrats, he leads 80-13 with Republicans and 64-33 with independents.

“Hillary Clinton is in big trouble,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“As recently as a week ago many polls in the state were showing her with around a 20
point lead. The race is trending heavily toward Obama and time is on his side with
another eight day before the voting.”

The standard racial and gender disparities in support between Clinton and Obama apply
in Ohio. She leads 55-42 with women, while he leads 51-45 with men. She has a 56-38
advantage with white voters, while he leads 76-24 with African American voters.

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 55-30. The biggest issues for
Republicans in the state are the economy and the war, and McCain dominates, leading
61-27 with voters most concerned about the economy and 76-17 with voters whose top
issue is the war.

“If Mike Huckabee was looking for a miracle in Ohio, he’s not likely to find it,” said

Debnam. “This race is pretty much over.”

PPP surveyed 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 430 likely Republican primary
voters on February 23rd and 24th. The survey’s margins of errors are +/- 4.0% and +/-
4.7% respectively. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

PPP will have new numbers for the primaries in Texas tomorrow.

Complete results are attached and can be found at http://www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you have questions about this release or would like an interview regarding this release,

please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Ohio Democratic Primary Survey Results

Q1 The Democratic candidates still running for
President are Hillary Clinton and Barack
Obama. If the primary was today, who would
you vote for?
If you would vote for Hillary
Clinton, press 1.

If for Barack Obama, press 2.

If you’re undecided press 3.

Clinton……………….. .50%

Obama………………. .46%

Undecided………….. . 4%

Q2 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is
most important to you? The War in Iraq,
education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral
or family values, health care, or immigration. If
the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If
education, press 2. If the economy and jobs,
press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family
values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If
immigration, press 7. If some other issue is
most important, press 8.

War in Iraq ………… 25%

Education ………….. 7%

Economy and jobs. 46%

Taxes ……………….. 3%

Moral and family values……………….. 4%

Health care………… 12%

Immigration ……….. 2%

Other ………………… 1%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.

Women ……………… .54%

Men…………………… .46%

Q4 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If other, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 82%

Republican……………………………………………… 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q5 If you are white, press 1, if African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.

White ………………… .78%

African American … .17%

Other…………………. . 5%

Q6 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older than 65, press 4.

18-29…………………. .15%

30-45…………………. .23%

46-65…………………. .44%

Older than 65 ……… .18

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Current South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Polls

All current Democratic presidential primary polls show Barack Obama leading by good margins.

RCP Average 01/04 – 01/09 – 44.0 31.0 15.3 Obama +13.0

Given the New Hampshire results, I would subtract 10 points from Obama’s totals which would have him winnning by a narrower margin in two out of three.

Interesting side issue: Obama and Hillary were TIED in New Hampshire in the most important respect. Each won 9 delegates. A draw.

I am honestly stumped by the twin prospects of tampering that may or may not skew results and by the enduring threat of a Bradley tilt between polls and results.

To me the best idea is to create a bullet point platform now around points I made in an earlier post today.

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