abba's way, politics

Alexander Hamilton Quill Lets John Boehner Have It

I suppose that every politician must suffer brickbats, but sometimes I wonder. Poor John Boehner may regret having sold hos soul to big oil and Wall Street.

+

Evaluating John Boehner

Though the day was raw they sat in Boston Common near where the ducks parade and managed to get much done. The staff at Austin Riggs would have been impressed.
+
Blaming John Boehner

I cannot be held responsible for the utterances of Alexander Hamilton Quill. This being his first public political comment, I would assume that there is more bile to come.
+
John Boehner’s Lips

John Boehner’s Lips – Quatrain by Stephen C. Rose. John Boehner evoked the first W the one who looks like Jack Lemmon but may have been in CIA Florida when none had heard yet of the Bay of Pigs
Standard
pattern language, politics

10 Percent Of Homeowners Projected To Hit Major ‘Walk Away’ Point By June 2010

Moved here

Standard
politics

Betcha Obama Travels To The Max

Make you a bet that President Obama will break all presidential travel records.

Miles traveled. Time traveling. Number of places visited. Coverage of trips. Significant visits. Views of him as The Great Traveler.

Betcha he found Air Force One to his liking.

Betcha he is going to score big points in Florida and Indiana today.

Betcha things work better if he is not pacing around and tempted to micromanage. He is pretty good at setting deadlines.

Betcha he sees this more and more as a continuation of the campaign. Need to activate the grass roots. Tell DC a thing or two. Energy is out there, not in DC.

Betcha he will be using the town hall format to deal with the news of the day in a convincing and effective way. Turn your CSPAN on. Check out whitehouse.org on my sidebar.

Betcha this will be more than quick town hall events — sometimes there will be symbolic things like visiting a place where people are thinking new thoughts and doing new things Or just visiting someone who needs a visit. Sometimes family trips?

How many states do you bet the President will hit in his first term? I am betting over 30. How many trips a week? Betcha an average of one or more.

ALL THESE BETCHAS INSPIRED BY THIS NYTIMES PIECE

Standard
politics

Limbaugh Less Popular than Wright, Ayers

A Democratic Poll found Rush Limbaugh less popular than Jeremiah Wright or Bill Ayers.

Congressional Republicans have turned to Rush Limbaugh to lead the battle against Obama. One problem: A poll says he’s less popular than Jeremiah Wright.

Republicans who have turned to Rush Limbaugh to lead the fight against President Obama may have backed the wrong horse. According to one recent poll, Limbaugh turns out to be one of the most unpopular political figures in the country.

An October 24, 2008, poll conducted by the Democratic research firm Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner has Rush Limbaugh enjoying a public-approval rating of just 21 percent among likely voters, while 58 percent have “cold” feelings toward the right-wing radio-talk-show host. Limbaugh’s cold rating was higher than that of all the political figures the firm polled. It was seven points higher than Rev. Jeremiah “God Damn America” Wright and eight points higher than former Weather Underground domestic terrorist William Ayers. (As the firm points out in an email, it’s true that Wright and Ayers both had lower “warm” ratings than Limbaugh–as you’d expect for men who have virtually no constituencies.)

SOURCE

This is newspaper wrapping on one level, but it does indicate that today the public is more concerned with action than bloviation from whatever quarter, including this one. But the poll does suggest that Limbaugh’s limited popularity is amplified mainly by the attention given to him by both the media and those who do not like him. My conclusion is ignore him. And the media that puff him up.

The real action today is President Obama’s trip to Indiana and Florida where the hurt is strong and the people are impatient. We’ll check for videos and transcripts.

Standard
florida

Simple Reasons for NO Michigan/Florida Primaries

About | Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls | Game

The simple reason is that they may have no impact on the nominating process. I am not saying to disenfranchise anyone. The whole process was and remains a mess, hubris on steroids. But my oft-stated counsel to seat existing delegations on the basis of negotiated settlements and possible penalties makes the best sense.

To put it succinctly.

1. The way things are going, there will be a tipping point at the time of the PA primary if not before. This will be reached when Obama has as many committed superdelegates as Clinton and as even mathematically-impaired media start to see the figures on the wall.

2. If there is a tipping point, Obama will be the presumptive nominee before there could be a primary in Michigan — which I assume is the only state hare-brained enough to plan one, Florida having at least two sensible congresspersons (Schultz and Wexler) whose minds are in synch with what I’m saying here. So any arguments based on massive attention being paid to Michigan would be zapped.

3. Primaries are ars much disenfranchisement as seating original delegations. In an imperfect process, the best answer is to negotiate some and penalize some and to knock heads if the campaigns do not act within the bounds of reason.

UTILITY NOTE — if the Superdelegates link above is blinking,it is because Barack got some more delegates today.

Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose


Digg!

michigan
florida

Obama Blog

Standard
florida

Michigan & Florida Should Seat Delegations with Conditions

About | Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls | Game

Holding new primaries is an invitation to chicanery and lawsuits and huge expenses and I do not believe it will happen. The alternative is to seat the admittedly imperfect and even outlaw delegations of the two states.

To remedy the imperfection of the original elections, there needs to be a negotiated settlement that is agreeable to both sides. The only people I have seen moving in this direction are Representatives Schultz and Wexler in Florida and they deserve plaudits for their reason and equanimity and willingness to be “bipartisan”.

From what I have seen of the Michigan Governor on TV I am not encouraged.

In this situation I think lassitude and incompetence may prove to be our allies.

Primaries are hard to plan and even harder to implement. Forget them.

Seating imperfect delegations is a matter of negotiation.

A penalty — maybe they don’t vote the first ballot. Maybe their votes are reduced by the percentage of days they jumped the gun.

Whatever the resolution, both sides get to be magnanimous. Hillary gets a whack at the superdelegates. Barack racks up more delegates and ends up with a reasonable number in both contests.

Shall we say 50:50 in Michigan and 55-45 in Florida. Mathwise we might cede Hillary a total of ten for both contests.

I am quite convinced it will come down to negotiation.

In the case of do-overs, innate incompetence shakes hands with reason. And the answer is ixnay.

Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose


Digg!

michigan
florida

Obama Blog

Standard
florida

Florida-Michigan Do-Overs? No Way

About | Most Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls

My prediction is that there will be no do-overs in Michigan and Florida. Nor will the original results of these semi-elections be allowed to stand. Nor will there be a 50-50 split.

As I’ve repeatedly suggested, I believe this will be resolved by negotiating to seat the delegations of Michigan and Florida with some evidence that the states are being penalized for essentially messing with the primary process and holding elections that were flawed because of the absence of legitimate campaigns.

I hesitate to suggest what the penalty will be, but I believe the one that would make the most sense is to seat the existing delegations and give them a vote on the second, but not the first ballot. This would effectively liberate the delegates to vote however they wish if the convention went to a second ballot.

How would the delegations be composed? I assume that would be negotiated.

This makes massively more sense than dickering over mail-in elections which are not even legal in Florida or do-overs funded by Clinton financial heavies. Really.

Take the flawed results and create a reasonable penalty and a negotiated resolution and then say take it or leave it.

Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose


Digg!

michigan
florida

Obama Blog

Standard